Forecast: Crude Oil Consumption in End-use in China

Crude oil consumption in end-use in China experienced significant fluctuations over the past decade. From 2013 to 2014, there was a substantial increase of 35.99%, followed by a decline in subsequent years, particularly noticeable in 2017 with a drop of 42.12%. The consumption slightly rebounded in 2020 with a rise of 28.33%, but the overall trend has been downward since then. In 2023, the consumption stood at 348.6 ten thousand metric tons, showing a decrease of 5.23% from the previous year. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years demonstrates a minimal increase of 0.017%, indicating slow and inconsistent growth.

Looking forward to 2024 and beyond, the forecast suggests a continued decline, with a projected CAGR of -4.99% and an overall reduction of 22.58% by 2028 compared to 2023. This indicates a sustained downward trend in crude oil consumption for end-use in China, driven by potential policy shifts, market dynamics, and advancements in alternative energy sources.

Future trends to watch for include:

  • Changes in government regulations and policies impacting crude oil usage.
  • Technological advancements in renewable energy and their adoption rates.
  • Global market influences and oil price volatility.
  • Industrial development and shifts in major sectors consuming crude oil.