Forecast: Crude Oil Production in China

China’s crude oil production has shown fluctuations over the past decade. Peak production was observed in 2015, followed by a dip through to 2018. From 2019 onwards, production began a gradual recovery, reaching 20.15 million metric tons by 2023. The year-on-year variation showed an increase of 0.64% from 2022 to 2023. Over the last five years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) stood at 1.25%.

Forecast data from 2024 to 2028 indicate a steady increase, with production expected to reach 20.77 million metric tons by 2028. The projected five-year CAGR is 0.49%, translating to an overall growth rate of 2.45% across this period.

Future trends to watch:

  • Technological advancements in exploration and extraction methods.
  • Government policies and regulations impacting domestic production.
  • Global oil prices and their influence on China's production decisions.
  • Shifts towards renewable energy and their impact on long-term crude oil demand.