Forecast: Fertilizer Consumption in Nigeria

Fertilizer consumption in Nigeria has experienced fluctuating growth from 2013 to 2023, showing great volatility from double-digit surges to slight declines. The peak sharp surge occurred in 2017 with an 89.06% year-on-year increase, while the steepest drop was in 2015 at -11.07%. Between 2013 and 2023, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has oscillated significantly, reflecting varying government policies, economic conditions, and agricultural practices. By 2023, fertilizer consumption stood at 19.16 kilograms per hectare.

Recent years have shown stabilization, with the 2022 to 2023 period reflecting a 1.34% year-on-year growth, suggesting a soft return to positive growth trends after minor fluctuations.

Looking forward, forecast data indicate an average annual growth (CAGR) of 1% from 2024 to 2028, pointing to steady but moderate growth influenced by ongoing governmental agricultural initiatives and global market conditions.

Future trends to watch for:

• Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity.
• Government subsidy programs and their effectiveness.
• Advancements in agricultural technology and practices.
• Global fertilizer market trends and their impact on local availability.