Forecast: Passenger Cars Production in China

China's passenger car production peaked in 2017 at 24.807 million units and has been declining since then. In 2023, production reached 16.024 million units, marking a notable downward trajectory. The year-on-year variations over the last two years were -7.09% in 2022 and -7.56% in 2023. The average annual decline rate (CAGR) between 2019 and 2023 stands at -7.4%. Forecasts indicate this decreasing trend will continue, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -8.07%, projecting a 34.36% overall production drop by 2028, reaching approximately 9.668 million units.

Key trends to watch include:

• The adoption and impact of electric vehicles (EVs) and government policies promoting environmental sustainability.
• Economic factors, such as consumer purchasing power and shifts in demand preferences.
• Technological advancements and their influence on production efficiency and market dynamics.