Forecast: Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans in Saudi Arabia

The data on Bank Nonperforming Loans (NPL) to Total Gross Loans ratio in Saudi Arabia indicates a peak in 2020 at 2.18, following an increasing trend from 1.31 in 2013. Post-2020, the ratio shows a steady decline, reaching 1.68 in 2023. The year-on-year variation between 2022 and 2023 is a decrease of -5.6%, while over the last two years it has declined by -8%. The 5-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2028 is forecasted at -2.87%, showing a stable downward trajectory, and the total 5-year growth rate suggests a decrease of -13.57% by 2028.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Economic Reforms: Continuous government initiatives to diversify the economy could further improve asset quality in banks.
  • Regulation Changes: Enhanced regulatory frameworks may help maintain NPL ratios.
  • Global Economic Conditions: Fluctuations in oil prices and global economic stability will directly impact loan performance in the banking sector.

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