Forecast: Financial Services Gross Value Added in South Africa

The Financial Services Gross Value Added (GVA) in South Africa has exhibited notable growth from 2013 to 2023, with values increasing yearly, albeit with some fluctuations. In 2023, the GVA stood at 636.83 Billion South African Rands. The earlier part of this period saw robust year-on-year growth rates ranging between 5-7%, while more recent years (2018 to 2023) had modest growth rates between 1-2%. Notably, 2020 experienced a slight contraction of -1.95%, partly recovering in the subsequent years.

The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2013 to 2023 decreased over time, reflecting the decelerating annual growth rates. The average annual growth rate over the last five years (2018 to 2023) stood at a mere 1.19%. Forecasts for the next five years suggest a continued slowing growth trend, with a forecast CAGR of only 0.79%, indicating a growth of 4.02% over the next five years.

Looking ahead, future trends to watch for include:

• The impact of technological advancements and fintech on the broader financial services sector.
• Potential regulatory changes and economic policies influencing the financial landscape.
• Effects of global economic fluctuations and local socio-economic factors, especially as they pertain to investor confidence and market stability.