Kenya's raw sugar equivalent production exhibited significant fluctuations between 2014 and 2023. From 2014 to 2015, production increased by 7.25%. However, the following year saw a drastic decline of 35.53%. After some recovery with a 15.37% rise in 2017, the trend turned negative again, with year-on-year declines persisting through most of the following years, except for a slight uptick in 2021. By 2023, the production value was 408.0 thousand metric tons, representing a 2.39% decrease from 2022. The 5-year CAGR (2019-2023) averaged -2.46%, indicating a steady decline.
Forecasting into the future, raw sugar production in Kenya is expected to continue its downward trajectory, with projected decreases each year and an anticipated 5-year CAGR of -2.22% through 2028. By 2028, production is estimated to fall by 10.6% from its 2023 levels.
Future trends to watch for include:
- The impact of climate change on crop yields and agricultural practices.
- Technological advancements in sugar production and processing.
- Policy changes and government support schemes for the agricultural sector.
- Global sugar market dynamics influencing local production and pricing.
