Forecast: Raw Steel Production in South Africa

South Africa’s raw steel production stood at 5.72 million metric tons in 2023. Over the past decade, the output has shown a declining trend, with notable dips such as the 18.49% drop in 2020 and smaller year-on-year variations of 1.77% in 2022 and 1.79% in 2023. This decline is exemplified by a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.01% since 2019.

Key Variation Insights:

• Year-on-year decline of -1.79% in 2023.
• 5-year CAGR from 2019 to 2023 of -2.01%.

Forecast Highlights (2024-2028):

• Predicted continuous decline reaching 5.18 million metric tons by 2028.
• Projected 5-year CAGR of -1.57% from 2024 to 2028.
• Forecasted overall contraction of -7.6% over the next five years.

Future Trends to Watch: Analysts should monitor geopolitical factors, advancements in steel production technology, raw material availability, and demand fluctuations in the global steel market, as these could significantly affect South Africa’s production landscape.