The cottonseed oil market in China has shown fluctuations over the years, starting with a high of 880.0 thousand metric tons in 2015, dropping to its lowest at 713.45 thousand metric tons in 2020, and gradually declining to 732.0 thousand metric tons in 2023. The year-on-year variation for 2023 was -0.81%, reflecting a continued slight decline. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years was -1.06%, indicating an average yearly decrease in volume.
Key long-term trends include:
- From 2014 to 2023, the market experienced a cyclical pattern with significant decreases in years like 2016 (-14.66%) and subtle increases such as in 2018 (3.76%).
- The five-year forecast to 2028 shows a continued decline at a more gradual CAGR of -0.72%, suggesting lower but persistent contraction.
Future trends to watch for:
- Potential impacts of sustainability initiatives and regulations on cottonseed oil production.
- Technological advancements in alternative oils, which may influence market demand.
- Fluctuations in raw cotton production, given its direct link to cottonseed oil availability.
