The conversion of permanent grassland areas to organic farming in Denmark has shown significant variability over the past decade. From 2013 to 2016, the area saw substantial growth, peaking in 2017. However, from 2018 onwards, a declining trend was observed, with year-on-year decreases until 2020, followed by minor upticks in subsequent years. By 2023, the area stood at 0.29% of the Total Utilised Agricultural Area.
Key points:
• 2015 and 2016 experienced substantial year-on-year growth rates of 111.11% and 89.47%, respectively.
• Between 2017 and 2020, there was a reversal, marked by declines, with 2018 and 2019 showing significant reductions of -24.39% and -16.13%, respectively.
• The last two years before 2024 showed modest recovery rates of 8% in 2022 and 7.41% in 2023.
• Analyzing the long-term trend, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2017 to 2021 was -7.03%, illustrating a downward trend, while from 2018 to 2023, the CAGR marginally improved to -1.32%.
The forecasted data suggest a stabilization with minor growth resuming, reaching 0.32% by 2028. With a forecasted average annual growth rate of 1.3%, the sector is expected to see a healthier progression compared to the recent past.
Future trends to watch for:
• Government policies and subsidies aimed at promoting organic farming.
• Market demand for organic products which can drive further conversion.
• Innovations and technological advancements in organic farming techniques.
• Potential environmental impacts and climate change influencing grassland management.
