Brazil's molasses production has experienced significant volatility over the past decade. Between 2013 and 2023, each year usually varied by -5.41% to 23.9%, demonstrating swings in annual production. However, starting in 2018, production saw a pronounced downward trend, hitting a low of 12.1 million metric tons in 2018. It then stabilized, fluctuating around 13 million metric tons until 2023. The year 2023 registered a slight decline of -0.45%, standing at approximately 12.994 million metric tons.
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years pointed to a very slight average annual decline of -0.38%, indicating an overall flat to negative trend. Forecasts predict this trend will continue in the near term, with production expected to hover around 12.686 million metric tons by 2028, reflecting a minimal decline over the next five years.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, the main input for molasses production, government policies affecting the sugar and ethanol industries, and shifts in global demand for molasses and its byproducts. Additionally, advancements in agricultural technology and sustainable practices may influence production capacity and efficiency.
