Forecast: Exports of ICT Services in Kenya

In reviewing the export data for ICT services in Kenya from 2013 to 2023, it is evident that there has been significant volatility. Year-on-year variations show fluctuations from -27.18% in 2015 to a peak of 71.62% in 2021. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) reflects this volatility, with a low of -3.61% in 2019 and a high of 17.09% in 2022.

By 2023, the value of ICT service exports stood at 1056.7 million USD, representing a 1.5% increase from the previous year, signaling a potential stabilization after periods of significant change. Over the last five years, the CAGR averaged at 13.13%, suggesting a strong upward trend in ICT service exports.

Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 project a slower growth rate with a five-year CAGR of 1.49%. The anticipated growth rate for this period is 7.67%, indicating a gradual and more stable increase in exports.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Technological advancements and their impact on ICT service quality and competitiveness.
• Government policies and incentives promoting ICT exports.
• Global economic conditions influencing demand for ICT services.
• Investments in ICT infrastructure and education in Kenya.