Forecast: Number of Payment Transactions by Non-banks in Mexico

Over the past decade, the number of payment transactions by non-banks in Mexico exhibited a general upward trend, starting from 3.23 billion units in 2013 to 5.05 billion units in 2023. The average annual growth rate from 2013 to 2019 was positive, albeit varying yearly. Exceptions occurred in 2020, marking a significant decline of -14.35%, largely attributable to pandemic disruptions. The subsequent recovery in 2021 saw a remarkable increase of 30.34%. Modest fluctuations occurred in the following years, with 2022 registering a slight drop of -2.02%, and 2023 showing slight growth with 2.75% year-on-year increase.

Forecasts for the years from 2024 onwards project a steady rise, culminating in 5.77 billion units by 2028. The average annual increase over the coming five years is anticipated to be 2.04%, suggesting a relatively stable expansion pace to await. The cumulative five-year growth rate is forecasted to be around 10.62%, indicating gradual but consistent improvement.

Future trends to watch for include the impact of advancing digital payment technologies, regulatory shifts, and consumer adoption rates of non-traditional financial services. The ongoing rise of e-commerce and mobile payments is likely to play a significant role in the evolution of transaction volumes.