In 2023, the number of scientific publications from Italy among the world's top 10% most-cited in AI was a benchmark setting the stage for forthcoming years. Forecasts indicate a trend of steady growth from 2024 to 2028, with year-on-year increases of around 2.22% to 2.05% in publications. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) reflects a consistent upward trajectory, averaging around 2.16% annually from 2024 to 2028.

Future trends to watch for:

Continuous innovation and investment in AI research driving further increases in publication rates.
Potential shifts in research focus or emerging AI subfields influencing publication impact and volume.
Collaborations between Italian institutes and global entities potentially amplifying citation impact.