Forecast: Financial Services and Insurance Real Value Added in South Africa

The financial services and insurance sector in South Africa showed a real value added of 0.42 in 2024, projected to decline consistently through 2028 where it stands at -0.48. In 2025 the value drops to 0.19, followed by a negative growth of -0.042 in 2026, continuing down to -0.27 in 2027. This represents a troubling downward trend, with the sector shifting from modest growth to significant contraction over a five-year period. Year-on-year variations confirm an accelerating decline, with 2024 to 2025 seeing a reduction of over 50%, and the following years marking even sharper year-on-year percentage reductions.

Future trends to watch for include the impact of regulatory changes, technological advancements in fintech, shifts in consumer behavior towards digital banking and insurance products, and macroeconomic factors influencing consumer confidence and business investment. Monitoring these trends will be crucial for stakeholders to adapt strategies and mitigate risks.