Forecast: Phosphorus Fertilisers Consumption in the Netherlands

From 2013 to 2018, phosphorus fertilizers consumption in the Netherlands exhibited fluctuating yet overall stable trends, with minor year-on-year variations between -5% and 5%. However, starting in 2020, a significant downward trend emerged, with consumption plummeting from 5.29 thousand metric tons in 2020 to 3.76 thousand metric tons in 2023, an 11.69% decline year-on-year. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2023 was a stark -9.21%, pointing to a consistent reduction in usage.

Forecasts indicate a continued sharp decline from 2024 onwards, predicting a reduction to just 1.16 thousand metric tons by 2028. The forecasted CAGR over the next five years stands at -18.48%, with a 64% total reduction expected. This drastic decrease may suggest structural changes in agricultural practices, regulatory impacts, or shifts towards more sustainable fertilization methods.

Future trends to watch for:

• Implementation of further environmental regulations limiting phosphorus usage.
• Advancements in alternative fertilization technologies.
• Increased adoption of sustainable agriculture practices reducing dependency on phosphorus fertilizers.
• Possible market reactions to changes in global phosphorus supply chains.