The number of registered air carrier departures in Brazil has exhibited significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023. There was a noticeable decline in the period between 2013 and 2017, driven by economic challenges, reaching a low in 2017. A gradual recovery began in 2018 but was drastically interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, leading to a steep decline of over 51%. The sector started its recovery in 2021 and has continued to progress, with a year-on-year increase of 12.14% in 2023, standing at 823.58 thousand departures. Over the last five years, the average annual variation (CAGR) remains slightly negative at -0.22%.
Looking ahead, the forecast indicates a steady but modest growth in departures, with a forecasted CAGR of 0.42% over the next five years, leading to an overall growth rate of 2.13% by 2028. The projected figures suggest a cautious optimism as the industry stabilizes and heads towards a slow recovery phase.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of global economic conditions, changes in consumer travel behavior post-pandemic, advancements in airline technology, and government policies on aviation. Monitoring these factors will be crucial to gauge the pace and sustainability of the sector’s recovery.
