Forecast: Crude Oil and Condensate Production in North America

The crude oil and condensate production in North America has shown significant variation over the years. Starting from 2013 with a substantial year-on-year growth of 9.6%, the trend continued with robust increases until 2015. A slight decline of 4.51% occurred in 2016, followed by a recovery into stable growth from 2017 onwards. Notably, production surged by 11.98% in 2018 and 7.61% in 2019 before experiencing a downturn in 2020 with a 6.48% decrease. The later years, 2021 and 2022, saw moderate growth rates of 1.5% and 4.41%, respectively. By 2023, the production stood at 18.98 million barrels per day, reflecting a modest year-on-year increase of 2.36%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018-2023 indicates an average annual growth of 1.77%.

Looking ahead, the forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 suggests a stable upward trend, with the production expected to reach 21.11 million barrels per day by 2028. The forecast five-year CAGR is projected at 1.69%, signifying a steady albeit slower growth compared to historical figures.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Shifts in global oil demand and supply dynamics.
  • Policy and regulatory changes impacting production.
  • Technological advancements in extraction and production methods.
  • Investment trends in renewable and alternative energy sources.

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