Forecast: Antiretroviral Therapy Coverage in Spain

Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) coverage in Spain has shown a consistent upward trend over the past decade. From 2013 to 2023, the actual coverage has increased from 72 to 91 persons living with HIV. Between 2022 and 2023, the year-on-year variation was 2.25%, slightly higher than the previous year's 1.14%. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years stands at 1.61%, reflecting moderate but steady growth.

Forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 anticipate continued growth in ART coverage, rising from 92 to 97 persons living with HIV. A projected five-year CAGR of 1.06% suggests a continued, albeit slower, increase compared to the past rates. The estimated 5-year growth rate through 2028 is 5.43%, indicating sustained efforts to expand coverage.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Continued government and non-governmental initiatives to increase ART accessibility.
  • Potential advancements in medical technologies and new treatment protocols.
  • Challenges in reaching marginalized populations and integrating them into ART programs.
  • The impact of global health policies and funding on local ART coverage efforts.
  • Monitoring the potential effects of emerging health crises on ART program continuity.

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