The HIV incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa has been steadily declining from 2.4 units in 2013 to 1.14 units in 2023, marking a significant decrease. The annual reduction in incidence has varied, with the highest year-on-year decrease noted in 2020 at -11.63%, while 2022 experienced an unusual rise of 12.2%. However, by 2023, the trend reverted to a decrease with a rate of -7.24%. For the past five years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was -5.92%. Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 suggest a continued decline, projecting a CAGR of -6.64% and an overall reduction of 29.08% by 2028, reaching 0.73 units.
Future trends to watch for include the effectiveness of treatment and prevention programs, the impact of new medical technologies, and socio-economic factors influencing health policy implementation. Keeping an eye on changes in these areas will be crucial for understanding whether the predicted decrease in HIV incidence will be realized.
