Analyzing the forecast for national passenger road transport in Türkiye by motor coaches, buses, and trolley buses reveals significant variations over the last decade. Between 2013 and 2016, there was a continuous decline, with 2016 registering the sharpest drop at -4.23%. The period from 2018 to 2019 saw recovery, yet the downward plunge in 2020 due to the pandemic was significant at -25.62%. The values recovered notably in 2021 and 2022 with growth rates of 17.43% and 9%, respectively. By 2023, the value stood at 99.59 billion passenger kilometers with a growth rate of 5.58% year-on-year. The average CAGR from 2019 to 2023 reflected a slight decline of -0.067%.
Future forecasts from 2024 onwards highlight a period of steady growth with the value expected to surpass 100 billion passenger kilometers by 2026. The CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is projected to be 0.13%, suggesting marginal expansion. Noteworthy trends to watch include the integration of more sustainable transport solutions and potential shifts in passenger behavior post-pandemic.
