The historical data on refinery gas final consumption in the chemical and petrochemical sectors in Poland indicates fluctuating trends with notable variances. From 2013 to 2015, there was a consistent decline in consumption, reflecting negative compound annual growth rates (CAGR). A turnabout occurred in 2019, registering a significant year-on-year increase of 52.44%. This upward momentum continued, albeit at varying growth rates, with consumption reaching 503.34 Thousand Tonnes Of Oil Equivalent in 2023. The last two years have seen a modest year-on-year growth, with 4% in 2022 and 3.08% in 2023. The five-year CAGR from 2019 to 2023 stands at a robust 15.24%.
Moving forward, the forecast depicts continued growth albeit at a decelerated pace. Projections show an increase to 543.77 Thousand Tonnes Of Oil Equivalent by 2028, with an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.08% over the next five years. This suggests a stabilization period, likely influenced by market saturation and potential shifts in industrial energy sources.
Future trends to watch for include advancements in energy efficiency, shifts towards alternative fuels, and regulatory impacts on the chemical and petrochemical sectors. Monitoring how these factors play out will be crucial in understanding and forecasting refinery gas consumption patterns in Poland.
