Spain's refined olive oil market has shown a consistent decline in volume over the past decade. As of 2023, the market stands at 161.93 million kilograms. From 2013 to 2023, there has been a notable downward trend with percentage variations highlighting a significant year-on-year decline, especially in recent years. The last five years exhibit an average annual decrease (CAGR) of approximately -4.02%. The trend is projected to continue, with forecasts predicting a continued decline through 2028, resulting in an estimated five-year average annual decrease of -3.92% and an overall drop of 18.13% from 2023 levels.
Looking ahead, key factors to watch include shifts in consumer preferences towards healthier alternatives, potential regulatory changes impacting production, and environmental factors affecting olive yields and oil quality. Additionally, the rise of competitive edible oils and economic factors influencing consumer spending will play a significant role.