Forecast: Number of Payments by Cards with a Debit Function in Japan

The number of payments by cards with a debit function in Japan has seen significant fluctuations over the past years. Between 2013 and 2018, there was a robust annual growth rate, with year-on-year variations fluctuating between 24.91% and 56.15%. This rapid increase was attributed to greater adoption of digital payment methods. However, 2019 and 2020 experienced a decline of 3.06% and 10.93%, respectively, due to market saturation and external economic factors, potentially including the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recovery followed with a 34.96% increase in 2021, stabilizing at lower growth rates subsequently: 1.08% in 2022 and 5.67% in 2023. The number of payments stood at 323.47 million units in 2023, showing a deceleration in growth compared to earlier years. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years was 4.48%, reflecting a maturing market.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Continued but moderate growth, with a forecasted CAGR of 3.85% over the next five years, reaching 414.94 million units by 2028.
• Technological advancements and digital payment innovations likely to influence market dynamics.
• Consumer behavior shifts towards more online and mobile transactions.
• Potential regulatory changes that might impact the use of debit cards.