From 2013 to 2023, the refinery output of gas oil and diesel oil in Finland experienced considerable fluctuations. In 2013, the output stood at 274.36 Thousand Terajoules, and by 2023 it had decreased to 182.72 Thousand Terajoules, reflecting a decline over the decade. Significant drops were noted in 2014 and 2015 with year-on-year decreases of 10.88% and 11.7%, respectively. A notable decline occurred again in 2021, with a dramatic reduction of 32.62% from the previous year. The recent year-on-year change from 2022 to 2023 shows a slight decrease of 0.45%, indicating a stabilization phase.
Analysis of the last two years reveals a mixed trend, with a 7.08% increase in 2022 followed by a minor 0.45% decrease in 2023. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years stands at -7.78%, reflecting a significant downward trend.
Looking forward from 2024, forecasted outputs show a steady decline, with the output expected to gradually decrease from 181.89 Thousand Terajoules to 178.68 Thousand Terajoules by 2028. The forecasted five-year CAGR is -0.36%, suggesting a modest decline in output over the next five years.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of regulations on fossil fuel usage, shifts in energy policies favoring renewable sources, and technological advancements in refining processes that may alter output figures. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for accurate forecasting and adjusting strategies accordingly.
