Forecast: Smoking Prevalence in Canada

In 2023, the prevalence of daily smokers among Canadians aged 15 and above stood at 10.4%. Based on forecasts from 2024 to 2028, smoking prevalence is expected to decrease from 10.1% to 8.8%. Notably, the year-on-year changes reflect consistent reductions: 3.96% in 2025, 3.09% in 2026, 3.19% in 2027, and 3.30% in 2028. Over the five-year period, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) indicates an average annual decline of approximately 3.29%.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Increased regulatory measures and public health campaigns aimed at reducing smoking rates.
• A growing shift towards alternative nicotine delivery systems like e-cigarettes.
• Potential impacts of socio-economic factors on smoking patterns.
• Advancements in cessation therapies and their uptake by the population.