In 2023, the share of rail freight transport in China was recorded at approximately 16.5%. Forecasts indicate a downward trend from 2024 to 2028, with a consistent year-on-year decrease of about 6.5%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this five-year period shows a decline of around 7% per annum. This suggests a shift in the distribution of inland freight transport away from rail towards possibly more flexible or cost-effective alternatives such as road or waterborne methods.

Future trends to observe:

Advancements in technology and infrastructure investment could potentially improve rail efficiency and capacity.
Environmental policies may incentivize a return to more sustainable transport options like rail.
Economic conditions and geopolitical shifts could impact trade volume and methods.