Forecast: Commercial Vehicles in Use in Australia

From 2013 to 2023, the number of commercial vehicles in use in Australia has shown a general upward trend, despite a significant dip in 2020. The value in 2023 stood at 4.15 million units. The year-on-year growth reached a peak in 2021 at 16.27%, recovering from the dramatic decline of 2020, which saw a -15.64% decrease. Over the past five years (2018-2023), the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 1.59%, indicating steady growth post-recession.

Looking into the forecast, the projected annual growth rate from 2024 to 2028 is expected to be slightly lower, with a CAGR of 1.17%. By 2028, the number of commercial vehicles in use should reach around 4.45 million units, showing a total increase of approximately 5.97% over five years.

Future trends to watch for include the impact of economic conditions and policy changes on the automotive market, particularly any government incentives or restrictions related to commercial vehicle usage. Additionally, advancements in electric and autonomous vehicle technology may significantly influence market dynamics and fleet compositions. Monitoring these factors could provide insights into more precise future growth patterns and potential market shifts.