As of 2023, the share of scientific publications from the United States that rank among the world’s top 10% most-cited in epidemiology stood at approximately 9.81%. From 2024 through 2028, this share is forecasted to decrease gradually from 9.67% to 9.11%. Analyzing year-on-year trends, the share is projected to decline consistently by about 1.45% per year on average. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) indicates a trend of steady decline across five years.
Future trends to watch include the impact of increased global collaboration and the rise of digital publication platforms, which may influence citation dynamics and reshape the distribution of top-cited works globally. Monitoring these external factors will be crucial in understanding their effects on citation shares. Additionally, changes in funding and policy priorities, particularly in fields intersecting with epidemiology, could alter this landscape further.
