Mexico's bananas export volume in 2023 stood at 616,000 metric tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.16%. Over the last five years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for banana export volume has averaged 2.22%. This growth has been consistent with some fluctuations; the most notable increase was in 2017 at 25.22%, followed by a slight decline in 2018 by -1.6%, and a recovery afterward. Notably, the years 2019 and 2020 saw slower growth rates at 1.81% and -2.63%, respectively. The export volume quickly rebounded by 7.82% in 2021.
Looking forward, the forecasted banana export volume is expected to continue its positive trend, with a projected annual growth rate of 1.66% from 2024 to 2028. By 2028, the export volume is anticipated to increase by 8.57% over this period, reaching an estimated 684,450 metric tons.
Future trends to watch for include potential market disruptions from climate change impacts on banana production, changing global demand patterns, and Mexico's ability to enhance its export capabilities. Monitoring these factors will be critical for accurately projecting future volumes.