China's import of coffee substitutes containing coffee stood at 12.05 thousand kilograms in 2023. Historically, the import volume experienced a significant surge in 2015 but has shown a decreasing trend since 2016. The year-on-year variation for 2023 was a decrease of 9.43%, reflecting a consistent decline observed over the last two years with variations of -8.78% in 2022, and -3.39% in 2021. The five-year CAGR from 2019 to 2023 is recorded at -8.3%, indicating an average annual decline.
Forecasting from 2024 to 2028 suggests a further decline with a 5-year forecasted CAGR of -12.43%, projecting a significant reduction of 48.51% in import volume by 2028.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Continued growth of the local coffee substitutes market may further reduce import reliance.
- Shifts in consumer preferences towards pure coffee could impact imports of substitutes containing coffee.
- Trade policies and tariffs affecting coffee-related imports could play a critical role in future volume variations.