Forecast: Public Health Insurance Coverage in Mexico

In 2013, public health insurance coverage in Mexico stood at 108.51 million units, growing steadily until 2015. A notable downturn started in 2016, leading to a significant decrease by 2023 to 71.45 million units. The year-on-year variation showed fluctuating trends, peaking at 3.41% in 2013 and plummeting consistently with negative rates as high as -9.28% in 2020. CAGR over the last 5 years reflects an average annual decline of -8.29%, indicating a continuous shrinkage in coverage.

Forecasting through 2028 suggests an ongoing decline with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -10.25%, leading to an overall reduction in public health insurance coverage to 37.59 million units by 2028. This represents a substantial -41.77% reduction from the current level in 2023.

Future trends to watch for include:

• The potential impact of policy changes and economic conditions on public health insurance coverage.
• The role of private health insurance in filling the gap created by declining public coverage.
• Socioeconomic factors that may influence individuals' ability and willingness to seek health insurance.
• Demographic changes influencing the demand for public health services.