The UK oil production has shown significant fluctuation from 2013 to 2023, starting at 40.65 million metric tons in 2013 and dropping to 32.49 million metric tons in 2023. Between 2013 and 2019, production saw an increase, peaking at 51.82 million metric tons in 2019. However, post-2019, there has been a consistent decline through 2023.
From 2018 to 2019, production slightly increased by 1.86% year-on-year. This trend reversed in 2020 with a 5.47% drop. The most striking year-on-year variations occurred in 2021 and 2022, with decreases of 16.58% and 11.31% respectively, reflecting significant downturns in production. The decline continued in 2023 with a 10.34% decrease year-on-year.
The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shifted over different periods - from negative early in the decade to a positive peak towards the middle, before slipping into negative growth in recent years. The last 5-year CAGR stands at -8.57%.
Looking forward, the predicted 5-year CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is forecasted at -5.34%, marking a continued decline with a 24% overall reduction in production projected by 2028.
Future trends to watch for:
- Technological advancements and their potential impact on extracting efficiency.
- Government policies related to energy transition and carbon emission reduction.
- Investment levels in oil exploration and production within the UK.
- Global oil price fluctuations and their impact on the UK oil industry.
- Geopolitical developments that might affect oil production and supply chains.
