Forecast: New Vehicles Registrations in the UK

The new vehicle registrations in the UK displayed significant fluctuations over the past decade. From 2013 to 2016, the market saw a steady increase, peaking at over 3 million vehicles in 2016. This was followed by a gradual decline from 2017 to 2019. The year 2020 experienced an unprecedented drop by nearly 88% due to the pandemic, but there was a notable recovery from 2021 onwards. By 2023, the market had bounced back to 2.6979 million vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.47%. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the past five years ending in 2023 was a slight decline at -0.33%.

Future trends to watch for:

• Continued gradual decline in new vehicle registrations from 2024 to 2028, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -0.57%.
• Impact of evolving consumer preferences towards electric and hybrid vehicles on overall market dynamics.
• Policy shifts and incentives aimed at reducing carbon footprints influencing vehicle sales.
• Technological advancements and their adoption rates impacting the longevity and turnover rate of vehicles.