The number of scientific publications in infectious diseases in Indonesia has shown significant variability over the past decade. From 2013 to 2023, actual data indicates a substantial increase from 19.22 publications to 140.85 publications, equating to an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.67%. This growth, however, has been marked by periods of both rapid increases, such as in 2015 (151.41% YoY) and 2018 (109.26% YoY), and declines, as seen in 2014 (-18.08% YoY) and 2016 (-15.4% YoY). The past two years (2022-2023) showcased a more stable and positive trend with a 20.6% increase in 2022 and a 13.79% increase in 2023.
Looking forward, forecast data suggests the momentum will continue, predicting a rise to 224.94 publications by 2028, which represents a forecasted CAGR of 7.34% over the next five years. This projected growth points towards a 42.51% total increase by 2028.
Future trends to watch for:
- Investment in healthcare and research infrastructure may further accelerate the growth in publications.
- Emerging infectious diseases and pandemic preparedness will likely continue to drive research interest and activity.
- Potential shifts in funding priorities or policy changes could impact year-on-year growth rates.
