In 2023, the incidence of Tuberculosis, including HIV-positive cases, in Nigeria stood at 16.0 cases per hundred thousand persons. Observing the trend from 2013 to 2023, there has been a consistent decline in the incidence rate, with the value decreasing from 48.0 to 16.0 cases per hundred thousand persons. Over the last two years specifically, the year-on-year variation was -11.11% in 2023 and -10% in 2022. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the past five years reveals an annual average decline of approximately -9.94%.
- The consistent year-on-year reductions highlight effective TB control measures.
- From 2024 to 2028, the forecast suggests an even steeper decline with an estimated five-year CAGR of -15.59%, culminating in a forecasted incidence rate of 6.0 cases per hundred thousand persons by 2028, representing a significant reduction by 57.14% from 2023 figures.
As we look to the future, it's essential to watch for:
- The impact of new TB treatments and vaccines.
- The ongoing integration of healthcare services addressing both TB and HIV.
- The effect of socioeconomic and environmental changes on TB transmission rates.
