The oil refinery capacities in South Africa have remained stable at 520 thousand barrels per day from 2013 to 2020. However, there has been a notable decline starting in 2021 with capacities dropping to 395 thousand barrels per day. This decline continued through 2023, where the capacity stood at 352 thousand barrels per day. The year-on-year variation over the last two years showed a reduction of -6.08% in 2022 and -5.12% in 2023. Overall, the CAGR from 2020 to 2023 was -7.51%, highlighting a significant downward trend in recent years.
Looking forward, the forecast for the next five years suggests a continued decline, with an expected capacity of 300 thousand barrels per day by 2028. This indicates a forecasted CAGR of -2.24% over the next five years, translating to an approximate 10.71% overall reduction during this period.
Future trends to watch for include potential regulatory changes, shifts in global oil demand, and the impact of sustainability initiatives. Additionally, advancements in technology and investments in alternative energy could further influence the trajectory of refinery capacities.
