The whole fresh goat milk producing population in Southern Africa has experienced a fluctuating trend. From 2013 to 2018, the population demonstrated volatility with significant year-on-year variations. Despite a brief increase in 2016 and 2019, the overall trend has been declining. By 2023, the population of goat milk-producing heads stood at 94.25 thousand, marking a continued downward trajectory.
Over the past two years (2022-2023), there was a consistent year-on-year decrease of 2.17%. The five-year CAGR from 2019 to 2023 was -1.77%, reflecting a gradual decline in the producing population. Predictions for the future, up to 2028, forecast a further decrease with a five-year CAGR of -1.95%, leading to an overall reduction of 9.39% by the end of the forecast period.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of climatic changes, economic shifts, and potential governmental interventions that could either exacerbate or mitigate the declining numbers. Additionally, advancements in goat breeding and milk production technology may influence production rates positively.
