Forecast: Number of Depositors at Commercial Banks in Sub-Saharan Africa

The number of depositors at commercial banks in Sub-Saharan Africa has shown fluctuations over the past decade. After a steady decline from 2013 to 2014, the numbers spiked significantly in 2016, followed by a consistent upward trend through 2021. The growth plateaued slightly between 2019 and 2020 but picked up momentum again into 2023, standing at 266.39 units per thousand persons.

Year-on-year, the latest data from 2022 to 2023 shows a 4.51% increase. Over the past two years, from 2021 to 2023, there has been notable volatility, with a slight dip before rebounding. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years is 4.25%.

Looking ahead, forecasts indicate a continued positive trajectory, with the number of depositors expected to reach 322.84 units per thousand persons by 2028. This projection implies a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 3.05%, culminating in a total growth rate of 16.21% over this period.

Future trends to watch for include the potential impact of financial technology (fintech) advancements, increased banking penetration in rural areas, and regulatory changes that could affect banking sector stability. Monitoring these factors will be crucial to understanding the long-term growth dynamics in the region.