The number of new clinically diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis cases in the UK is projected to show a slight annual decline from 2024 to 2028, beginning at 549 cases in 2024 and decreasing to 535 cases by 2028. This indicates a gradual downward trend with the year-on-year percentage change steadily decreasing by approximately 0.5%-0.7% each year.
From 2023, the forecast shows a continued moderate decline, aligning with historical data that suggested a previous downward trajectory. Over the five-year forecast period, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) reflects a marginal average decline annually.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of public health interventions, changes in immigration patterns, and advancements in medical treatment and vaccine availability, which could influence the rate of decline in tuberculosis cases.
