The forecast for tuberculosis prevalence in the UK remains stable at 14 cases per 100,000 persons from 2024 to 2026, showing no year-on-year change. By 2027, the forecast indicates a slight reduction to 13 cases per 100,000 persons, a decrease of approximately 7.1% from 2026, which is maintained into 2028. The 2023 estimate stands as a benchmark, which can aid in evaluating these future projections. Over the five-year forecast period, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) suggests a gentle decline overall, reflecting ongoing public health efforts.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of ongoing public health initiatives and the emergence of multidrug-resistant TB strains, which may alter the forecasted trend. Additionally, changes in immigration patterns and healthcare access could significantly influence future prevalence rates.
