Forecast: Smoking Prevalence in the US

As of 2023, smoking prevalence among persons aged 15+ in the US stood at 9.5%. Forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 indicates a steady decline: 9.1% in 2024, 8.7% in 2025, 8.4% in 2026, 8.1% in 2027, and 7.8% in 2028. This trend suggests an average yearly decrease of approximately 0.4 percentage points. The annual decline from 2023 to 2024 is 4.21%, with a similar downward trend continuing in subsequent years. The CAGR over this five-year period is approximately -4.84%.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Impacts of policy changes, such as increased taxes and more stringent advertising restrictions, on smoking rates.
• Shifts in public perception and cultural attitudes towards smoking.
• Advancements in smoking cessation technologies and their accessibility.
• Increased awareness and education efforts around smoking-related health risks.