Forecast: Goods Trains Movements in the UK

The analysis of goods train movements in the UK shows a consistent decline from 38.98 million train-kilometers in 2013 to 32.16 million train-kilometers in 2023, reflecting a negative trend over the past decade. Year-on-year variations indicate a mix of minor increases and drops, with the most significant decrease in 2016. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the last five years stands at roughly -0.8%, indicating a persistent decline in rail freight volume. Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 predict a further decrease, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -0.94% and an overall reduction of 4.61% by 2028.

Future trends to watch for include:

  • Potential impacts of environmental policies promoting rail over road freight.
  • Technological advancements in rail infrastructure and efficiency.
  • Economic factors influencing manufacturing and goods transportation demand.