The analysis of goods train movements in the UK shows a consistent decline from 38.98 million train-kilometers in 2013 to 32.16 million train-kilometers in 2023, reflecting a negative trend over the past decade. Year-on-year variations indicate a mix of minor increases and drops, with the most significant decrease in 2016. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the last five years stands at roughly -0.8%, indicating a persistent decline in rail freight volume. Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 predict a further decrease, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -0.94% and an overall reduction of 4.61% by 2028.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Potential impacts of environmental policies promoting rail over road freight.
- Technological advancements in rail infrastructure and efficiency.
- Economic factors influencing manufacturing and goods transportation demand.