The forecast for reported measles cases in the UK shows a gradual decline from 1.5 thousand cases in 2024 to 1.32 thousand cases in 2028. In 2023, the number of cases was 1.58 thousand. Year-on-year, there is a steady decrease with variations of -3.3% in 2025, -2.8% in 2026, -3.5% in 2027, and -2.9% in 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) indicates an average reduction of 3.5% per year over this five-year period.
Future trends to watch for include shifts in vaccination rates, possible outbreaks affecting forecasts, and policy changes to bolster measles prevention measures. Close monitoring of public health interventions is crucial for maintaining the downward trend in reported cases.
