The output of tobacco products in Canada has shown a steady increase since 2013, growing from 1.7 billion CAD to 3.96 billion CAD in 2023. Between 2013 and 2018, the output grew modestly with occasional spikes, notably with a significant rise in 2019. From 2019 onwards, the year-on-year variation has stabilized at around 4-5% growth annually. Over the last five years until 2023, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 9.47%, reflecting robust market performance.
For the forecast period from 2024 to 2028, an average annual growth rate of 3.1% is anticipated. This reflects a more tempered but consistent growth trajectory, cumulating to a projected 16.49% increase over five years, reaching 4.83 billion CAD by 2028.
Future trends to watch for include potential regulatory changes impacting production levels, shifts in consumer preferences towards reduced tobacco consumption or alternative products like vaping, and economic factors that could influence purchasing power and market demand.
