The trend in outgoing international railway passenger traffic in Poland has seen significant fluctuations between 2013 and 2023. In 2013, the traffic stood at 596,000 units, followed by a continuous decline until 2016. A notable recovery began in 2017, with figures improving until 2018. The pandemic in 2020 caused a significant drop, but the subsequent years showed a gradual recovery. In 2023, the traffic was 466,000 units.
Year-on-year variations highlight sharp declines in the early years and minor increases or decreases in recent years:
- 2022-2023: -1.06%
- 2021-2022: +4.16%
- 2020-2021: +13.27%
The last five years' CAGR (2019-2023) stood at -2.24%, reflecting a mild negative trend. From 2024 onwards, the traffic is projected to decrease gradually, observing a five-year forecasted CAGR of -0.87%, indicating a consistent but slight decline.
Looking ahead, it is essential to monitor the impact of economic conditions, policy changes, and enhancements in railway infrastructure, which could alter these forecasts. Additionally, shifts in international travel behavior post-pandemic will be crucial factors influencing future trends.
