Forecast: Commercial Vehicles in Use in the UK

The commercial vehicles in use in the UK have shown notable fluctuations from 2013 to 2023. In 2013, the number stood at 4.36 million units, growing steadily to 4.8 million units by 2019. The market experienced a significant dip in 2020, dropping to 4.02 million units likely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rebound began in 2021, and by 2023, the number of commercial vehicles reached 4.97 million units, showing a positive yet moderate growth.

Year-on-year analysis reveals varied percentage changes, notably -16.26% in 2020, a 15.45% recovery in 2021, followed by smaller, stable increases. The CAGR over the past five years averages at 0.87%. Future forecasts predict continued growth, reaching 5.16 million units by 2028, reflecting a projected 5-year CAGR of 0.67%.

Future trends to watch for include advancements in electric commercial vehicles, shifts in regulatory policies aimed at reducing emissions, and the impact of evolving logistical demands driven by e-commerce growth.