Forecast: Value Added by Wholesale, Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels in China

From 2013 to 2019, the Value Added by Wholesale, Retail Trade, Restaurants, and Hotels in China demonstrated consistent growth, albeit at a decelerating rate. This trend was interrupted in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a substantial decline. However, the industry rebounded strongly in 2021, followed by moderate but consistent growth through to 2023. In 2023, the value stood at USD 1.7165 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.49% and a 5-year CAGR of 3.93%.

Looking ahead to the forecast from 2024 to 2028, the industry is expected to maintain steady growth, albeit at a reduced CAGR of 2.55%, translating to an overall increase of 13.4% by 2028. Here are some future trends to watch for:

• Continued digital transformation and e-commerce growth, influencing retail and wholesale sectors.
• Recovery and potential expansion in the hospitality industry as global travel rebounds post-pandemic.
• Increasing consumer spending driven by China's expanding middle class.
• Impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption.