Forecast: Green Coffee Production in China

China's green coffee production has demonstrated several fluctuations over the past decade, ranging from an initial value of 116.83 thousand metric tons in 2013 to 136.25 thousand metric tons in 2023. Since 2013, year-on-year variations highlight notable fluctuations, with peak growth instances such as a 26.9% increase in 2013, contrasted by significant declines like the -13.76% decrease in 2020. From 2019 to 2023, the production value climbed from 120.0 to 136.25, marking a 2.85% year-on-year increase in 2023. The 5-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) stands at 3.36% for 2023, indicating a gradual rise in output.

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest a moderate upward trajectory for green coffee production in China through 2028, with a forecasted output of 156.0 thousand metric tons, driven by a 5-year CAGR of 2.13%. The expected 11.11% growth rate by 2028 further emphasizes steady growth.

Future trends to monitor:

• Technological advances in coffee farming and production methods might enhance yield efficiency.
• Shifts in domestic demand and consumer preferences toward coffee consumption.
• Climate change and its impact on coffee crop yields and quality.
• Global coffee market dynamics, including price fluctuations and competitive pressures.