The South African market for oranges and mandarines has experienced significant fluctuations over the past decade, highlighted by drastic reductions in volume between 2014 and 2023, with the market standing at 172,000 metric tons in 2023. The most notable decrease occurred from 2015 to 2016 with a drop of nearly 51%, followed by a modest rebound in 2018. However, volumes continued to decline through 2023, averaging an annual decrease (CAGR) of -8.21% over the past five years. In recent years, the market volume saw a year-on-year decline of 6.52% from 2022 to 2023.
- Over the last two years, there has been a consistent year-on-year negative variation.
- The long-term trend from 2014 to 2023 displays a volatile but generally downward trajectory.
- The forecast to 2028 indicates a continued decline, with an expected CAGR of -7.01% and a total reduction of 30.48% over the next five years.
Future trends to watch for include changes in consumer preferences towards citrus products, potential impacts of climate change on crop yields, and any significant policy shifts regarding agricultural exports and imports.
